Prática de Shadowing: Extended interview: Jamie Dimon on AI, Iran and more - Aprenda a falar inglês com o YouTube
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Gene, thank you for doing this.
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Gene, thank you for doing this.
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Gene Fletcher, Ph.D.: Yeah, thrilled to be here.
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Gene Fletcher, Ph.D.: You've been writing for many years about the American dream and its troubles.
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It's fraying, it's struggling.
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What happened?
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Gene Fletcher, Ph.D.: Yeah.
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Well, first, put it in context.
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We have the most prosperous nation the world's ever seen.
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Decade after decade, almost everyone's done better.
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However, in like the last 20 or 30 years, if you look at, you know, just the fact like the lower third income is, and it's really there it was focused on,
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the incomes didn't really go up very much.
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they struggle more if they if you live in inner cities
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or a certain rural areas your schools aren't very good i
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tell a lot of people here you don't go home
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and worry about crime you don't worry about your kids schools
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but then they do and it means they don't leave the lower third
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because you know we we do polling at cbs
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and you know three out of four people say it's harder today to raise a family buy a home
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and find a good job yeah no i think
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that may be true i shouldn't say only the bottom third
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there's maybe part of the middle uh income segment too so uh but all those those things are fixable.
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I mean, one of the things I talk about is
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that we had growth in our country is 2% a year for the last 20 years.
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Had it been 3%, we've had 20,000 per person more GDP.
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That would have paid for an awful lot.
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Why was it only 2%?
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And I think we have tons of bad policy that we made it worse for growth in America.
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And growth is what creates everything, capital formation, capital R&D, investment productivity.
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So if you go to like these inner city schools, They're not teaching kids skills that give them a good paying job.
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And there are solutions to most of this.
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But I think it's a wide variety of things that we got wrong.
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Well, you mentioned capital and growth.
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There was polling recently that finds only about half the country even has the positive view of capitalism.
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And more than a third of people have a positive view of socialism.
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Do you understand why?
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I'm not sure I do.
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I just think it's dead wrong.
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And the fact is capitalism has lifted millions of people out of poverty.
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like a lot of things that may have flaws.
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I think I hear a lot of people sometimes talk about the flaws of capitalism.
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I realize they're talking about the flaws of human beings.
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Some people are selfish, some are self-centered, some are this, some of that.
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That's true in a communist society or a capitalist society.
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Some businesses do bad things, and that's not because of capitalism.
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And so, you know, we try to have laws and regulations that get the best out of people and, you know, get the worst.
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But we've been educating people over and over that things are bad.
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And if you look at them, they're not bad.
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They're living longer.
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Everyone's got air conditioning.
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Cars are safer.
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But I do think it's become much more of a struggle.
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And so we really should focus on that.
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I always ask the question, why?
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Well, why are inner city schools failing the kids?
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You could say real estate taxes because they don't have the same taxes to pay for the better schools.
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How come these schools, like the Aviation High School across the 593 bridge here, these kids graduate at 17 or 18, making $75,000 a year?
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Because they were given skills to maintain their sedan aircraft.
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But for a lot of people, it's about how much money they're making.
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Can they go on vacation every year?
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Can they expect a better future for their kids?
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Can they expect a retirement with decency?
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Can they own a home?
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These are the core components.
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When I talk to regular people, we travel all over the country, and you talk to regular people about someone like yourself, a business like this one, doing really well.
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The real simple question they have is, why couldn't a business like this just take a little less so that other people have it a little bit easier?
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I don't think that would solve the problem at all.
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And, you know, we don't, we don't even try to earn a fair return on our capital.
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We're not trying to take anything with anybody.
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I think it would solve the problem as we build more affordable housing.
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The reason we're not building more affordable housing is because local zoning requirements and mortgage origination, mortgage rules that made it so expensive to get a mortgage, we could reduce the cost of that mortgage.
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I think the way you fix the problem is by fixing the city schools.
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We already spend a trillion dollars or something like that on K-12.
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You should be asking this question, the trillion dollars.
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Why can't it work better?
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So my view is these programs failed.
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So why can't we build programs that don't fail?
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So if the answer to that, why can't we?
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It's policy.
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And I think good policy is free.
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Is it policy or is it politics?
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That's a good question.
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I mean, you'd be more of an expert in politics.
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Definitely not.
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But I make a list of bad policies like schools.
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I think we should double the income tax credit.
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So if you're making $14,000 a year with two children, the government gives you $6,000 or $7,000 at the end of the year.
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I would make a 10, I'd get rid of the child requirement.
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So if you're a couple, you're both working, at a minimum you're making $48,000 a year, and it has the virtue of going into their communities by helping schools,
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get the tutors, maybe buy some more health insurance, the dignity of a job, the first job leads to a second job, and it's got much better social outcomes,
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more families, less recidivism, less crime, less drugs, less suicide.
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So we have a lot to do to fix parts of our society.
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We should get at it and roll up our sleeves and acknowledge what the problems are and fix them.
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Steve Adubatois How does this initiative that you're announcing today solve it?
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Dr. Tom Hanks Yeah.
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So we've always done ...
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We think our job is to finance society, small businesses, large businesses, individuals, home ownership.
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We're more of the biggest in the country across the full spectrum.
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But we ask our own people, And when we have the problem, I always ask, okay, got it.
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What are you going to do?
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And so we ask the people around the Euphraim, American Dream, what can we do more?
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And we have that long-lived small business.
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We're going to go from banking $7 million to $10 million.
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We have our small business consultants.
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So if you're a small business and you want to know where to build your second restaurant, how to negotiate a contract, we have people who can consult for that now.
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We have 1,000 small business bankers.
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Now all 48 states.
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We have a rural state strategy, which we did not have before.
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We're going to do skills.
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So I just mentioned about schools and things like that.
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We're going to do 25% of our branch are in lower income neighborhoods.
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And we have, we call community branches.
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Some of them, we invite people in to learn about saving money with some mortgage, buying a house.
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We call them vital institutions where we, we're probably one of the largest banks in the country to cities, schools, states, hospitals, but to do more of that.
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We're one of the biggest affordable lenders in the country.
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We're going to do more of that.
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So it's just kind of, we're going to make it a crusade to do our part, to do more for this part of America, try to help lift up all society.
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This particular moment in time, people are already feeling the pain, and now we've got a war in the Middle East that's driving up costs for diesel fuel,
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for gas, that trickles into all kinds of other things.
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Where do you see this going economically?
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I don't know.
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The economy is one big, complex beast, and even AI can't figure it out.
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I tell people anything that happens is like I strung the camel's back.
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So maybe one day a straw is going to cause that tipping point and push us through a recession, hopefully not to deflation.
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So the war is a couple of straws in their camel's back.
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Whether that causes a tipping point, I don't know.
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I think what's more important for the future of the world is that this war will successfully conclude.
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I hear a lot of people on TV talking about it wasn't an imminent threat.
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No, it wasn't a threat at all.
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They were actually killing and murdering people around the world for the last 47 years.
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They have a ballistic missile that can go 3,000 miles, which I think was a surprise to the American public.
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And they were very close to having nuclear weapons.
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You know, so that's really important.
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Obviously, you know, the gas prices are going to hurt, you know, some folks.
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It's very unfortunate.
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So the sooner it gets properly resolved, the better.
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So the people who feel like we're already in a recession to them, you say, no, we're not.
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No, I think it is for them.
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I know it's for them.
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Oh, absolutely.
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I mean, there are parts of society that are not doing very well.
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And I completely acknowledge that that.
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The war is at a crossroads.
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Iran continues to control the Strait of Hormuz.
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Does America need to take control of that Strait, reopen it before the war ends?
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I don't know the answer to that question.
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You said finish the job earlier, complete it is what you said.
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Yeah, I have to be a little humble here.
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I don't know what the military knows.
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I do know they're quite smart.
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So you speak to some of these folks, they've been planning this for years.
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They've got multiple plans on the book to do things, including Card Island, Strait of Hormuz, I think it's going to be hard to leave and have the Strait of Hormuz closed.
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I do think it would be a real problem for the global economy.
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Because Iran would have a veto power over traffic.
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Basically, yeah.
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But when you said the biggest threat now is that the war isn't completed, what do you mean by that?
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What do you have in mind?
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Well, I think I've thought this since the war in Ukraine started, that the world is not a safe place.
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It never was, we call it, lulled into a false sense of security until the Russians invaded Ukraine.
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At that point, we already knew that, you know, Russia, Iran, North Korea, somewhat aided, embedded by China, have different plans for the free and democratic world.
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Let's talk about affordable housing, one of the key parts of this initiative of yours.
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There's a plan right now in Congress to potentially prevent large investors from buying up single-family homes.
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Do you support a ban on that kind of investment?
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I hate to tell you this, it's basically irrelevant.
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It's not I think they're doing it at 350 homes.
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Only 1% of the homes are owned by what you would call large companies.
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So I don't think it's going to change any calculus.
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I'm not sure it's great because some people want to rent their homes or not, so they go in, they put in money.
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I probably wouldn't do it, but if it gets done, it's okay.
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If you want to fix affordable housing, you can change rules and regulations around mortgages
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that would reduce the cost of mortgages by 30 or 40 basis points and not create any additional risk, in my view.
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And take affordable housing laws mostly local, sometimes state, and you know, don't lord them with job programs, let people build them.
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You know, they're, if you read the list of ridiculous rules why it can't get done,
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you can build a lot more starter homes and starter apartments that people could buy a lot cheaper all over the country.
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And there are some people doing it well.
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I can send you the list of what cities have got it together and they're building stuff.
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And like in California, I think I read, it's 50% more to build, quote, an affordable home than it is in Nevada because of those rules and regulations.
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So there's a lot of things to do to fix it.
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That's what we should be doing.
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That'll make a much bigger difference than limiting, you know, big private equity guys can do.
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Let's talk about AI.
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You've talked a lot about it in recent months.
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You've admitted that it could reduce jobs, and it could reduce jobs across the economy somewhat quickly, too quickly.
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How concerned are you really about the potential for, as you put it, social unrest, even revolution?
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Yeah.
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So this is where I put it.
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In the context for all of us, I believe that 30 years from now, a lot of people, your kids are probably working three and a half days a week.
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They'll probably live to 100, and a lot of the diseases afflicted a lot of us, they won't get.
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They'll be cured to cancer, cars will be safer, planes will be safer, life will be better, you can hike more, do all the things you do.
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You're talking about the Jetsons from the 1960s.
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Walter Cronkite anchored a special about how the future that we're living in right now was supposed to be what you're saying.
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No, this is going to happen.
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I mean, the world is getting very productive.
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AI is going to do that.
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AI is going to jerk answers.
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It's going to come with better materials.
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It'll cure a lot of, stop a lot of car crashes.
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And so I think that is happening, okay?
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It's going to happen.
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The risk is if it is too fast.
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Right.
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I don't know if it's going to be too fast.
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Here's my mind.
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My mind is that there's a risk for it, so it's planned for it.
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So if it happens, we're more prepared.
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That's what I'm saying.
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How seriously do you worry that AI could sweep through the job market so quickly that society takes a real hit?
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I think there's some risk to that.
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I think, shoot, again, my view about risk isn't to guess what's going to happen, is to look at the range of possibilities and say, can you handle them, and what would you do if?
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So, if you're in my show, I always talk about that.
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Here's the range.
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Here's a range of possibilities.
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I may put different odds out of it than you do, but I want to be prepared for it anyway.
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And so, you know, it's the good and the bad, because I'm not trying to do just one.
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So, I do think AI in the long run will create huge benefits for society.
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If it causes a problem in the short run, let's be prepared.
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The reason I lag around this is
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because there are millions of people in the middle of their life with young kids, aging parents.
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Maybe they have a mortgage if they're lucky, and they're looking at potentially being AI'd out of existence professionally.
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What do you say to those people?
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I think we live in the most prosperous nation the world's ever seen.
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And for the most part, we've had a tech a lot of disruption.
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The system worked to create new jobs and new labor.
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There's tons of shortages in labor.
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So I go to talk to all these companies, too, and you should ask them.
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They don't have enough welders.
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There's not enough cyber.
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There's not enough, in certain parts, not enough advanced manufacturing.
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There's not enough metric.
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We're doing the security resiliency initiative.
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One of the people says, I don't need the plant.
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I need people who can work on the plant and I don't have that.
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So there are solutions that we should worry about.
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Is what's worried.
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And I, and I am sympathetic for people worried about that.
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We government and business collaborating should come up with solutions.
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You know, to cry and spill milk.
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Is it going to fix it?
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Solutions might fix it.
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That's a tough diagnosis for a 45-year-old who's thinking about it.
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I agree.
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I didn't think it would be okay, but you must be prepared.
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You grew up in Queens, a jungle gym not far from here.
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I think we can probably see it from the window.
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Yeah.
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For the kid in Queens now, or in a similar neighborhood anywhere in the country, what does that kid mean to know?
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What do you teach a child today to prepare them for this world we're talking about that's going to exist?
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Okay.
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I'll answer that.
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I'm not sure if that's right.
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Talk to everybody.
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Have deep curiosity about the world.
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Read opinion writers on the left and the right.
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Learn to think all the time.
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And then learn to have EQ.
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EQ to me is, can I communicate?
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Do I have heart?
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Do people trust me?
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Can I, you know, that great thing, I saw such a long letter and I didn't have time to write a short one.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Learn to do the short one.
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Learn to travel.
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Learn to open your eyes.
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Don't get weaponized.
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Don't always think you know.
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And when you work with people, you know, you see sports teams, you've seen when teams are humming, they're all working together.
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Learn to do that.
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As opposed to pound your chest, it's all about you.
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Learn to have a work ethic.
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Learn to have a purpose.
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All those things.
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You have a great life.
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Those are the things.
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Their lives are going to be more complex than ours were, basically, or younger, because I think they will have more jobs than we had.
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They'll move around a little bit more.
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I think they'll have great lives.
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But learning, I think, is probably still the number one thing to do.
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It sounds like another way of saying, get off your phone.
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I would say that, yes.
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I've always loved my kids.
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Like that is not going to make you smarter.
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Though a lot of them now read newspapers on their phones and things.
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Yeah, well, my 16-year-old feels like he's going to business school because he's getting fed the algorithm business tips.
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I don't think it's working.
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It's not the same thing.
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Let's talk about prediction markets, since we're looking into the future.
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Can you imagine J.P.
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Morgan being involved in prediction markets, taking positions in them?
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Maybe.
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We've just to start to ask this question.
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So for example, when you buy stocks, you know, I'd really pick, you know, high book value, high risk, fast P growth, all these various things.
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You could do the same thing in a prediction market on a JP Morgan.
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Like I want to be an owner if they do X, I don't want to be an owner if they do Y.
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So you're dividing a stock into little pieces.
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So it's possible one day we'll do something like that.
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We're not going to be in sports.
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We're not going to be in politics or a bunch of stuff we won't do.
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And obviously we have strict rules around insider information.
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You cannot use insider information at all for any reason, including prediction markets.
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We're going to make that clear to where people are here.
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We're studying this about how this is going to work.
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It is kind of an amazing development.
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It is an amazing development.
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I mean, because for a lot of people, they look at it and they think it's just a, it's gambling, basically.
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You don't see it that way.
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Well, no, people have been gambling forever.
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I mean, you probably bet in sports games in your kid.
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No, when you were a kid, you probably bet on poker in your kid and you might have bet with a friend who can win the presidential elections.
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It's been going on a long time.
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People, every country I've ever been in, people gamble.
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Some people, I have a brilliant friend who does the horses, and he is brilliant.
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And I'm like, why are you doing that?
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He likes it.
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You find it very intellectually challenging.
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So I'm not against it.
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I'm against it if it's an addiction that ruins your life type thing.
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I'm a little bit of a libertarian.
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You have the right to do what you want the way you want.
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Just take care of yourself.
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But I get what I'm asking is there's a prediction market more like gambling or is it more like investing?
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I think for the most part we like gambling, but there are areas where you can say no,
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it's investing You you you were deeply knowledgeable You're taking the other side of a bet and you think you're you know, you know better than the other person Yeah,
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let's talk about remote work one of your favorite subjects.
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I know you're not a fan I know why you're not a fan, but is it based on your own experience?
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Is it anecdotal?
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What kind of data are you looking at suggesting being in the office is really better?
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Yeah.
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So we've always allowed, we've always had 10% of people working remote.
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I'm not against remote.
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Okay.
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And, and it works.
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Like we have virtual call centers now in Baltimore and Detroit that are excellent.
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So I'm not against it.
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I'm against it where it doesn't work for the company and the clients or the individual involved.
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And also they get in a free market.
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You could build a company and go all remote.
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and I could build a company and say, go to the office.
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There's nothing more of that either.
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We said in the office because, and I'll give you a couple of examples, for younger people, it's an apprenticeship system.
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You learned your skill because you probably were a young reporter helping someone do other stuff, watching how they handled issues, watching how they handled tough questions,
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watching, it's an apprentice system.
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We saw people, when they weren't coming in, younger kids, kind of being left behind.
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They weren't developing their EQ as much.
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They didn't have as many friends.
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They didn't have much knowledge they weren't being assigned stuff.
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In fact, someone went so far to say to me, we shouldn't allow some of these kids to come in because it's unfair.
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And I'm saying, really?
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You're going to tell the kids they can't have an ambition?
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And so then management, and this is the big one to me, for any manager, I want to be accessible to my people.
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I'm accessible all the time.
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This remote thing, what happens is people say, well, I can't get him.
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He's doing here.
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And I was calling people up and they say, well, he's out.
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Tony's out on a walk or call his cell phone.
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And then it also creates, in my view, a lot of politics when you're on Hollywood squares, instead of having a direct conversation, I could say, that's not what I thought.
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And exactly why people are on their phone, they're texting, they're watching a movie.
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And it became outrageous to me.
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And eventually I said, we're just not allowing it anymore.
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But is that a thing?
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We do allow some.
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And flexibility is a perfectly reasonable thing.
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So we learn in COVID that flexibility is great.
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So we allow much more flexibility, particularly for caregivers, mothers, fathers, thinking of an older parent or something like that.
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But we think we're going to run a better business, do a better job for customers, share more information.
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It's like a neural net.
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JPWAR is a neural network.
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And that neural network starts to break down a little bit when you can't get a hold of people.
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Is that based on data or based on your feeling?
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A little both.
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Okay.
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But like I said, you could build a company one way
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and I could build another company one way based on a feeling.
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It's a free market.
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If you don't want to do it with my company, don't.
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If you don't want to do it with your company, don't.
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But I'll tell you one thing, we would crush you.
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Jamie, thank you very much.
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Thank you.
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